World econ struggles on

 This chart shows my calculations for the big 5 whole-economy PMIs.  "Whole-economy" means the unweighted average of manufacturing and services PMIs; "big 5" means the GDP-weighted averages of the USA, UK, Japan, Euro Zone and India, about 53% of world GDP; and each individual PMI has been extreme-adjusted before they were added together.  Since PMIs are a diffusion index, i.e., they measure whether sales, employment, etc., are up or down on the previous month, 50% represents the "recession line". If the PMI is below 50%, more than half of all component series are falling, while the reverse is true if it's above 50%.

In November, the big 5 average PMI was 50.9, fractionally down from October's 51.  Remember that these November data are "flash", i.e., provisional estimates, so will most likely be slightly revised.  However, in the past, revisions have been small, and in different directions for different PMI indices, so that revisions for the multi-country averages have tended to cancel out.

Conclusion:  the world economy is not in recession, but it's only growing slowly, with no signs of an imminent pick-up.   Within that, Europe is still in recession, the UK has gone back into recession after a brief blip, but the US is picking up.  No doubt falling interest rates globally will boost the world economy, but the impact of interest rate changes on the economy tends to lag, by at least a year.  I'd be surprised to see accelerating world growth before mid-2025.  I'll keep you posted.