World GDP growth about to turn up

February PMI indices have been released for all the economies for which I keep PMI data, so I have been able to calculate world PMI.

The chart below shows my calculation of the world PMI index compared with my calculation of the year-on-year percentage change in world real GDP.  For both time series, I have used PPP (purchasing power parity) GDP to estimate country weights.

World GDP growth has been higher than I expected, for two reasons.  The first is massive fiscal stimulus in the USA, the second is "revenge spending" on services after Covid lockdowns stopped holidays, eating out, social gatherings, etc.  As the impacts of both slowly tail off, the acceleration in world GDP might not be as pronounced as the turn up in world PMI suggests.