Tuesday, February 6, 2024

World economy turns up

 My calculation of the Big 8 PMI for January rose strongly, as foreshadowed by the rise in the Big-5 "flash" PMI. (The Big 8 PMI is a weighted average of the PMIs for the USA, Euro Area, China, Japan, India, Brazil and Russia, and it covers ~70% of the world economy)  

Both services and manufacturing rose.  Their average is above the 50% "recession line", but manufacturing is still below that line, i.e., is still contracting, though more slowly.  The gap between the services and manufacturing PMIs remains unusually large, showing that post-covid "revenge spending" is still a factor.


extreme-adjusted


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