Empire State and Philly Fed trend is up

It's only 2 of the regional surveys in the US, but the fit with overall (national) GDP is good.  The one period where it didn't work is H2/2005-H1/2006.  There was also a rally in 2011 which fizzled.

And, over the last couple of months the average hasn't correlated well with the average of the PMI and ISM surveys, which have continued to slump even as the Philly Fed/Empire State series have risen.  Perhaps it's a regional thing, with the NE less affected by the trade war.  Or perhaps it's just random.  But the yield collapse in Treasuries suggests that we are far from the bottom of the recession.