Wednesday, November 25, 2020

 From Peter Kalmus



50 years of international agreements  on climate and still the Keeling curve keeps on rising.

Think of the level of atmospheric CO2 as water in a bath.  There is a trickle flowing out (natural weathering of CO2 with rocks) but we keep on turning the taps on further to let in more water (burning fossil fuels).  For the level of CO2 in the atmosphere to drop, we need to turn the taps down so low that the amount flowing into the bath (atmosphere) is less than the trickle flowing out.   Or we need to accelerate the process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere, i.e., achieve negative emissions

Global emissions have probably peaked, because even though they will rise in 2021 from 2020, the steady growth of renewable electricity and EV sales will reduce CO2 emissions, faster and faster each year.  And the rise in 2021 won't take annual emissions back above 2019 levels. But that won't be enough to cut the CO2 in the atmosphere.   For that to happen, emissions will have to fall to close to zero.  And until the level of atmospheric CO2 levels off, global temperatures will continue to rise.

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