Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Hottest October ever

Ever measured, that is.  By a long chalk.    [Source]

Oh, wait.  This is just one month, say the demented denialists.  So here's a 5 year moving average:

And, see, there was a tiny "pause" in the uptrend.  So the dementeds were right! Yeah, except it was for all of 5 years.  Exactly comparable to previous mini cycles round the rising trend.  These mini and the longer-term cycles are normal climate and statistical phenomena.  It wasn't because the world had stopped warming.

The world is running out of time to do something meaningful about global warming.  We need to move to zero emissions, not in 85 or 35 years, but in 20.  And that is entirely feasible, as wind and solar and battery prices fall, and just keep on falling.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Chinese Ind Prdn up just 5.6%

China's industrial production rose just 5.6% year on year in October.   I keep on being wrong about this, but I reckon this is close to the cyclical low.

Coal price continues to slide

Monday, November 9, 2015