Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.
The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.
BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
It all depends where you start from. This is the chart from my piece on the KMIT economies (that's Korea, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) Looking at the topmost chart, it does seems as if the KMIT economies are growing more slowly than the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) But choose a different base period (same weights; lower chart) and that's not nearly so evident. A bit slower recently perhaps, and they declined much more during the GFC than the BRIC countries, as you'd expect given that they're much smaller and more dependent on global trends. Large continental economies are much less tied to the global cycle. In fact they set it.
Jan 08 =100
Jan 09 = 100
[BTW, these are my calculations, with my estimates for the most recent month where data aren't yet available.]