Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Happy Days Are Here Again

The song -- full of joy -- first came out in 1929. Of course, we all know what happened after that, don't we? The greatest depression in a hundred years. US real GDP declining 26%. The Nazis rising to power as a result in Germany. And so on and so on.

Wall St up 14.1% since the low. The All Ords up 9.8%. And the rally has happened because of the best possible reason -- the banks are profitable. Or so they say.

Well, it's time. Recent eco data have been better than expected, especially in China. And maybe the big slump after Lehman's failure is over. The technicals don't yet confirm that a new bull market has begun. I certainly hope it has, but... it has to exceed previous highs. It's close in Oz, but not in the US. All the same, emerging markets -- the canary in the coal mine -- have bottomed, technically. China is 30% off its lows. Latin America is holding up.

We shall see. In the meantime, why not party? And not to the tunes of the noughties but the happier music of the 20s and 30s. Like this one.

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